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经济学 1936

就业、利息和货币通论(通论)

约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯

决定就业的是总支出,而非节俭——必要时,政府可以把它托起来。

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In depth · the introduction

在大萧条最深的谷底,凯恩斯问出了一个离经叛道的问题:大规模失业,会不会并不是市场迟早会自行修好的小毛病——而是一个经济一旦跌进去、就困在里头出不来的陷阱?

核心想法

古典经济学说,过剩与失业会自行痊愈:价格与工资会一路下跌,直到每个愿意工作的人都找到工作。凯恩斯说,这可能行不通。一个社会生产多少、雇用多少人,取决于大家合起来愿意花多少钱。他把这总的花费,叫作「有效需求」。需求太低,工厂就闲置、工人就失业,而且没有什么能自动把它修好。

更糟的是,花钱会自我滋长。你花出去的一元钱,成了别人的收入;他又花掉其中一部分,再成为另一个人的收入,如此循环——于是一元的新增支出,会把总收入抬高好几元。这就是「乘数」。可这把刀也会反着割:当所有人同时收紧钱包,乘数便倒着运转,萧条愈陷愈深。凯恩斯的结论,在当时极为大胆——在深度萧条里,政府应当出手花钱,去填补私人支出留下的缺口。

它是如何诞生的

凯恩斯是他那个时代最负盛名的经济学家——剑桥的学者、布卢姆茨伯里圈的审美家、投机客,也是那个早在 1919 年就警告说凡尔赛和约苛刻的赔款将毁掉欧洲的人。当大萧条一路拖进 1930 年代,四分之一的工人闲置,而正统经济学开出的药方还是耐心等待与平衡预算时,他决意去推翻理论本身。

《通论》于 1936 年出版,矛头直指同行的经济学家,以晦涩难读著称;凯恩斯本人称,读它是一场「挣脱旧习的漫长突围」。它撕裂了整个学界——又在十年之内重塑了它,这场转向如此彻底,以至于人们干脆称之为「凯恩斯革命」。

它为何重要

这本书给了各国政府一个理由、一套工具,去主动对抗萧条与衰退,而不再只是干等它过去——它甚至改变了我们「看」一个经济的方式。GDP 与国民经济核算,正是为追踪凯恩斯那些总量概念而建。战后三十年,他的思想是主流;1970 年代遭到围攻,又在 2008 年与 2020 年的危机中强势复活。几乎每一份刺激方案、每一场关于赤字的争吵,都有一半是在与凯恩斯对话。

一个可以想象的画面

想象一座小镇,人人忽然忧心忡忡,于是都决定少花钱、多存钱。店主东西卖得少了,赚得也就少了,于是她也少花钱——她不再光顾的那位理发师,如今也付不起面包钱了,面包师只好辞退帮工……每个人的节俭,单看都明智,合在一起,却把整座镇说进了萧条。这正是凯恩斯看到的悖论:对一个家庭算得上审慎的事,一旦所有人同时去做,对所有人却可能是灾难——而解药,是得有人(往往是政府)重新开始花钱。

一张可交互的乘数柱状图:100 元的注入会被一轮轮地再花出去,每一元中再花掉的比例可调,每根柱子代表那一轮新创造的收入;拖动滑块,看各轮加起来远超最初的 100 元。

它的位置

凯恩斯,立在亚当·斯密与现代经济学之间。斯密(同在本馆)展示了出于自利的个人如何被「看不见的手」协调起来;凯恩斯则揭示了一种情形——这种协调在整个经济的层面上失灵,每个部分各自明智地行事,合起来却酿成糟糕的结局。在他之后,这门学科裂为两支:精炼斯密那个世界的微观经济学,与他所开创的宏观经济学。他挑起的争论——市场对管理、紧缩对刺激——至今仍是经济政治的脊梁。

The original document
Original source text

序言——一场挣脱的突围

J. M. Keynes · The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money · 1936 · Preface
The composition of this book has been for the author a long struggle of escape, and so must the reading of it be for most readers if the author's assault upon them is to be successful,—a struggle of escape from habitual modes of thought and expression.
The ideas which are here expressed so laboriously are extremely simple and should be obvious. The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds.

有效需求原理(第 3 章)

Book I, Ch. 3 · The Principle of Effective Demand
Keynes defines an aggregate supply function (the proceeds just sufficient to make it worth employing N workers) and an aggregate demand function (the proceeds entrepreneurs expect from employing N workers); employment settles where the two are equal.
The value of D at the point of the aggregate demand function, where it is intersected by the aggregate supply function, will be called the effective demand.
Against the classical doctrine that supply creates its own demand, he argues that this intersection can occur at a level of employment well below full employment, with no automatic force to close the gap.

边际消费倾向与乘数(第 10 章)

Book III, Ch. 10 · The Marginal Propensity to Consume and the Multiplier
… so that we can write ΔYw = k.ΔIw, where 1 − 1/k is equal to the marginal propensity to consume. Let us call k the investment multiplier.
It tells us that, when there is an increment of aggregate investment, income will increase by an amount which is k times the increment of investment.
Because the marginal propensity to consume lies between zero and one, k exceeds one: each round of re-spending adds less than the last, yet the rounds sum to a finite multiple of the original outlay.

长期预期:动物精神(第 12 章)

Book IV, Ch. 12 · The State of Long-Term Expectation
Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than on a mathematical expectation, whether moral or hedonistic or economic.
Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits—of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.

结语——观念的力量(第 24 章)

Book VI, Ch. 24 · Concluding Notes on the Social Philosophy towards which the General Theory might Lead
The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else.
[ … ]
Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.
J. M. Keynes · Cambridge · 1936