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經濟學 1936

就業、利息與貨幣通論(通論)

約翰·梅納德·凱因斯

決定就業的是總支出,而非節儉——必要時,政府可以把它托起來。

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In depth · the introduction

在大蕭條最深的谷底,凱因斯問出了一個離經叛道的問題:大規模失業,會不會並不是市場遲早會自行修好的小毛病——而是一個經濟一旦跌進去、就困在裡頭出不來的陷阱?

核心想法

古典經濟學說,過剩與失業會自行痊癒:價格與工資會一路下跌,直到每個願意工作的人都找到工作。凱因斯說,這可能行不通。一個社會生產多少、雇用多少人,取決於大家合起來願意花多少錢。他把這總的花費,叫作「有效需求」。需求太低,工廠就閒置、工人就失業,而且沒有什麼能自動把它修好。

更糟的是,花錢會自我滋長。你花出去的一元錢,成了別人的收入;他又花掉其中一部分,再成為另一個人的收入,如此循環——於是一元的新增支出,會把總收入抬高好幾元。這就是「乘數」。可這把刀也會反著割:當所有人同時收緊錢包,乘數便倒著運轉,蕭條愈陷愈深。凱因斯的結論,在當時極為大膽——在深度蕭條裡,政府應當出手花錢,去填補私人支出留下的缺口。

它是如何誕生的

凱因斯是他那個時代最負盛名的經濟學家——劍橋的學者、布魯姆茨伯里圈的審美家、投機客,也是那個早在 1919 年就警告說凡爾賽和約苛刻的賠款將毀掉歐洲的人。當大蕭條一路拖進 1930 年代,四分之一的工人閒置,而正統經濟學開出的藥方還是耐心等待與平衡預算時,他決意去推翻理論本身。

《通論》於 1936 年出版,矛頭直指同行的經濟學家,以晦澀難讀著稱;凱因斯本人稱,讀它是一場「掙脫舊習的漫長突圍」。它撕裂了整個學界——又在十年之內重塑了它,這場轉向如此徹底,以至於人們乾脆稱之為「凱因斯革命」。

它為何重要

這本書給了各國政府一個理由、一套工具,去主動對抗蕭條與衰退,而不再只是乾等它過去——它甚至改變了我們「看」一個經濟的方式。GDP 與國民經濟核算,正是為追蹤凱因斯那些總量概念而建。戰後三十年,他的思想是主流;1970 年代遭到圍攻,又在 2008 年與 2020 年的危機中強勢復活。幾乎每一份刺激方案、每一場關於赤字的爭吵,都有一半是在與凱因斯對話。

一個可以想像的畫面

想像一座小鎮,人人忽然憂心忡忡,於是都決定少花錢、多存錢。店主東西賣得少了,賺得也就少了,於是她也少花錢——她不再光顧的那位理髮師,如今也付不起麵包錢了,麵包師只好辭退幫工……每個人的節儉,單看都明智,合在一起,卻把整座鎮說進了蕭條。這正是凱因斯看到的悖論:對一個家庭算得上審慎的事,一旦所有人同時去做,對所有人卻可能是災難——而解藥,是得有人(往往是政府)重新開始花錢。

一張可互動的乘數柱狀圖:100 元的注入會被一輪輪地再花出去,每一元中再花掉的比例可調,每根柱子代表那一輪新創造的收入;拖動滑桿,看各輪加起來遠超最初的 100 元。

它的位置

凱因斯,立在亞當·斯密與現代經濟學之間。斯密(同在本館)展示了出於自利的個人如何被「看不見的手」協調起來;凱因斯則揭示了一種情形——這種協調在整個經濟的層面上失靈,每個部分各自明智地行事,合起來卻釀成糟糕的結局。在他之後,這門學科裂為兩支:精煉斯密那個世界的微觀經濟學,與他所開創的宏觀經濟學。他挑起的爭論——市場對管理、緊縮對刺激——至今仍是經濟政治的脊梁。

The original document
Original source text

序言——一場掙脫的突圍

J. M. Keynes · The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money · 1936 · Preface
The composition of this book has been for the author a long struggle of escape, and so must the reading of it be for most readers if the author's assault upon them is to be successful,—a struggle of escape from habitual modes of thought and expression.
The ideas which are here expressed so laboriously are extremely simple and should be obvious. The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds.

有效需求原理(第 3 章)

Book I, Ch. 3 · The Principle of Effective Demand
Keynes defines an aggregate supply function (the proceeds just sufficient to make it worth employing N workers) and an aggregate demand function (the proceeds entrepreneurs expect from employing N workers); employment settles where the two are equal.
The value of D at the point of the aggregate demand function, where it is intersected by the aggregate supply function, will be called the effective demand.
Against the classical doctrine that supply creates its own demand, he argues that this intersection can occur at a level of employment well below full employment, with no automatic force to close the gap.

邊際消費傾向與乘數(第 10 章)

Book III, Ch. 10 · The Marginal Propensity to Consume and the Multiplier
… so that we can write ΔYw = k.ΔIw, where 1 − 1/k is equal to the marginal propensity to consume. Let us call k the investment multiplier.
It tells us that, when there is an increment of aggregate investment, income will increase by an amount which is k times the increment of investment.
Because the marginal propensity to consume lies between zero and one, k exceeds one: each round of re-spending adds less than the last, yet the rounds sum to a finite multiple of the original outlay.

長期預期:動物精神(第 12 章)

Book IV, Ch. 12 · The State of Long-Term Expectation
Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than on a mathematical expectation, whether moral or hedonistic or economic.
Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits—of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.

結語——觀念的力量(第 24 章)

Book VI, Ch. 24 · Concluding Notes on the Social Philosophy towards which the General Theory might Lead
The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else.
[ … ]
Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.
J. M. Keynes · Cambridge · 1936