Martingales

a sum of mean-zero independent variables as a martingale

Here is the most basic and most important example of a martingale, the one to keep in your head. Take any sequence of independent random variables X_1, X_2, ... each with mean zero (each a 'fair shock', as likely to push up as down on average). Add them up step by step: S_n = X_1 + X_2 + ... + X_n. The running total S_n is a martingale. This is exactly the model of a gambler making a sequence of independent fair bets, where S_n is the cumulative winnings, and it is the engine behind the simple random walk.

The check is a one-liner and worth doing once so the idea sticks. Condition on the past F_n (the first n variables). Then S_(n+1) = S_n + X_(n+1), where S_n is already known given the past and X_(n+1) is independent of the past with mean zero. So E[S_(n+1) given F_n] = S_n + E[X_(n+1)] = S_n + 0 = S_n, the martingale equation. Notice exactly what was used: independence lets the conditional expectation of the new term reduce to its plain expectation, and the mean-zero assumption makes that zero. If instead each X_i had mean mu, the same computation gives E[S_(n+1) given F_n] = S_n + mu, so S_n would be a submartingale when mu > 0 and a supermartingale when mu < 0 — and S_n - n*mu (the sum re-centred) is once again a martingale.

This example is the seed from which the whole theory grows. Centred partial sums let you turn limit theorems about sums into martingale statements: martingale versions of the law of large numbers and central limit theorem generalize the independent-sum case to dependent settings. A small but important caveat: independence is far more than the martingale property requires. The martingale property only needs each new increment to have conditional mean zero given the past — the increments may be dependent in every other way. That extra slack is precisely why martingales reach so much further than sums of independent variables.

Let X_i be +1 or -1 each with probability 1/2 (mean zero). Then S_n = X_1 + ... + X_n is the simple symmetric random walk and a martingale: given the walk so far, the next step adds +1 or -1 with equal chance, so its conditional expectation is S_n. With a biased step of mean mu, you re-centre as S_n - n*mu to recover a martingale.

Centred partial sums are the prototype martingale; subtract n times the mean to centre a biased walk.

Independence is stronger than needed: the martingale property only requires each increment to have conditional mean zero given the past, which is why martingales generalize sums of independent variables.

Also called
random walk martingalecentred partial sums中心化部分和